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Thomas Sowell: Too "Complex"? »61 votes | View all Comments (55)

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"Despite the fact that gas prices have skyrocketed over the past seven years, the United States is currently taking 70,000 barrels of oil a day off the market to continue filling the nation's SPR. Moreover, the DOE recently announced plans to increase this SPR fill rate to 76,000 barrels per day"

http://www.house.gov/apps/list/press/ny22_hinch...

Unsurprisingly, its oil consumption for aircraft, ships, ground vehicles and facilities makes the Pentagon the single largest oil consumer in the world. By the way, according to the 2006 CIA World Factbook rankings there are only 35 countries (out of 210) in the world that consume more oil per day than the Pentagon.

http://www.energybulletin.net/26194.html

Let's get pragmatic, okay.

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Compare ANWAR to SPR, just for perspective.(apples oranges and bird in the ground)

"Increasing production in the first and second years is scheduled as 25,000 and 50,000 barrels per day, respectively. Peak production of 10 percent of the annual development rate, approximately 100,000 barrels per day, is scheduled in the third year of production. Beginning in the fourth year production declines at an exponential rate of 10 percent per year, ending after 40 years."

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/an...

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DOD consumes 395,000 barrels per day.

http://www.energybulletin.net/13199.html

If any of my sources are BS let me know.

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" The range of potential is from 5.7 to 16.0 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil (the 95 percent to 5 percent probability range). A mid-case of 10.3 billion barrels is based on the statistical mean of the estimates."

You don't think 16 billion barrels of oil would help?

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Not for long. The U.S. uses about 6.6 BBO per year. Even if ANWAR produced at maximum capacity (approx 800 MBO per year) and it ALL went to the U.S. (not at all a guarentee, the U.S. still exports oil) it would only meet approx 12% of domestic demand assuming, of course, that demand remains stable. It appears that demand is decreasing due to high prices. Finally.

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So, you agree drilling in ANWR would help.

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No, I don't. 12% of domestic demand for just over eight years isn't a solution, it's a band-aid. Let's fix the problem.

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Look at the outer continental shelf estimates:

Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Assessment 2006:

66.6 to 115.3 billion barrels of oil in U.S.

326.4 to 565.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/162214...

Congress needs to wake up and realize that the only way to bring prices down in the short term is to increase supply

That will help bring the prices down to a reasonable level while the longer term strategies are developed

They need to do both at once - more supply AND long term strategies to reduce dependence on foreign oil

Why is it that Congress is always missing half of the equation?

Without increasing the supply in the short term we will be looking at escalating prices for decades.

Does anyone seriously believe that the demand from China and India will lessen? As those countries continue to develop, the demand for oil will outpace supply

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More supply won't ease the crisis. The supply can be artificially manipulated in about a half dozen ways.

This isn't a supply/demand equation in simple. There are numerous other factors at work here.

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True there are other factors but the single biggest factor is the increased demand and the uncertainty of supply. The point of the article is that pointing out the major factor, supply and demand, is not that complicated.

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No, it isn't. The single biggest factor is the commodity market.

Because stocks have not performed at historic rates and the commodity market can be shifted by a relatively small (several billions) investment, many of the larger investors shifted their investments into commodities, especially grains, oil and gold.

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According to which experts or source?

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More than one.

http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/economy...

http://www.reason.com/news/show/125414.html

http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/m... -- lifestyle subindex page_top stories

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3708951.stm

Certainly, supply and demand, along with the falling dollar, have something to do with it, but it isn't as simple as Sowell would have us believe.

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Thanks for the links. Always appreciate valid information. I stand corrected.

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Hey, no worries. Thank you for being polite. It's a pleasure.

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So you are trying to say investments in oil were bad risks? Sounds like bunk to me. Some might be selling off Oil stocks now with oil selling at record highs, but I doubt that has crapola to do with supply and demand. Demand is growing, even at record prices.

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No, I said that the prime driver of the price of oil has been investment in the commodities market, which has almost nothing to do with investment in companies that produce oil.

"Oil stocks" would be stocks that have to do with oil production, refining or transport. Those stocks are also doing well with the record profits. However, what I'm referring to is not stocks and bonds, but the commodities market where you buy or sell a "contract" for a certain quantity of a said product. The commodities market is notoriously fickle and it has been one of if not the major driver of the price of oil as other market factors become important (supply, demand, transport, instability, the dollar).

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If announcements were made that a number of huge reserves had been found and drilling was going to be allowed, do you really believe the commodities traders would continue to bid up the price?

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"70,000 barrels of oil a day"

That's a drop in the bucket compared to the 20 million barrels per day that is used in the US

We are approaching hurricane season. All it will take is destruction of rigs in the Gulf to increase prices dramatically

Do you think these politicians will step up to the plate and admit that suspending delivery to the reserve was a mistake if that occurs?

Where does the oil for the reserve come from??

The oil is delivered from oil companies as payment in kind for royalties owed for pumping oil from federal land.

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I hope to get back to add to your commnet.

I have a busy day today.

The RIK program, in my mind, has some flaws.

I read a GAO report about it.

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