Shell: Conventional oil will peak within seven years »
Posted By Aidenag 8 months, 2 weeks ago in Business & FinanceWorld demand for oil and gas will outstrip supply within seven years, according to Royal Dutch Shell. The oil multinational is predicting that conventional supplies will not keep pace with soaring population growth and the rapid pace of economic development.
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Aidenag
Photographer by day, news junkie by night. My main areas of interest are politics and the environment. If you have any questions, problems, or suggestions ...
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ETproductions8 months, 2 weeks ago
The Mayan calendar says it all ends in 2012. So do prophecies from many other parts of the world. We shall soon see.
Personally, I think there is time to avert disaster, but it will require world leaders to turn a new page. That's why the hunger for real change is so obvious in this year's political campaigning.
Unfortunately, most of the candidates are using "change" as a catch-phrase for business as usual. We are very rapidly approaching an irreversible tipping point where global warming will run away and assure that most of the human population of earth and most of its diverse flora and fauna perish.
I hope we can develop the political will to see this, and not just press for ever more development and exploitation.
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cowboygrandpa8 months, 2 weeks ago
So what can and will be done about it?
I fear that the governments' already have a plan and it's not good news for us.
I can foresee a war like no other to gain control of the remaining oil.
We are seeing the beginnings of it right now.
I hope I'm wrong, but with mans' past experience and greed showing I have little hope of a peaceful solution.
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not2needy8 months, 2 weeks ago
There are affordable hybrid cars being made, but of course Big Oil is probably very much in control of how many are actually put on the market for the average person. They intend to bleed us dry as a bone!
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GWHayduke8 months, 2 weeks ago
Fossil fuels are ALL finite resources. They, by virtue of their definition, do not regenerate.
Geologists have ALWAYS known that the globe's oil would eventually lose pace with dramatically increased consumption.
Thankfully, geological technology has improved significantly since the 70s and the data is far more concise that what they were utilizing then.
That does not change the fact that the estimates are still based on the reality that the resources WILL eventually be gone.
But its much easier to refute the science and change nothing, right?
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djn3nunez38 months, 2 weeks ago
It's a sliding scale. Demand versus known reserves. Demand has increase as they expected but the known reserves has increase due to the improvement in recovery as well as new exploration, deeper well and so on. Of course the deeper you go the more it cost. So the looming crisis (still just on the horizon) is the end of cheap oil.
The solution proposed in the 70's when the first gas lines appeared to reamain today. Conservation, more effecient vehicles, and developing alternative fuels. But if we did that in the 70's the oil giants wouldn't be able to reap the record profit of today.
You know who it is that reversed the energy conservationist policies enacted after the oil crisises of the 70.
The man who put the CON in conserviative, Captain Ronnie Raygun of course.
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engineer8 months, 2 weeks ago
Another BS scare by the oil companies to keep the price up. Check out the book "Black Gold, Stranglehold."
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bill29368 months, 2 weeks ago
Alot of those wells are being reopenned for two reasons. One they are from fields that were pumped dry a years ago that suddennly have new oil in them. Two, some of the wells drilled in the 1950s the technology did not exist in the testing (micrologs then, CNL density now) and what was thought to be water and limestone is actually fractured shale oil. The second reason is not that strange but the first is unless you have read up on the oil described in the previously noted book by engineer.
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bill29368 months, 2 weeks ago
What I find initially interesting from the link is this:
In March 1956, M. King Hubbert, a research scientist for Shell Oil, predicted that oil production from the 48 contiguous United States would peak between 1965 and 1970.
So one of the first to get it wrong worked for Shell Oil. And which companies experts are again making claims, Shell Oil. Interesting
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panzerv8 months, 2 weeks ago
Sniff...Sniff...Is that more propaganda fed to us through the media by the oil companies to justify the continued and increased extortion of everyone bulls&it I smell.....Yup. If everyone in America chipped in a couple of dollars, maybe we could buy us a president that would work FOR US for a change.
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Obaku8 months, 2 weeks ago
Within 7 years? EIA data clearly shows world oil production has ALREADY peaked.
Look at the numbers for yourself.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/petro.html
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nostalgia8 months, 2 weeks ago
The first batch of the Tata will hit the Indian market in the second half of this year. Tata Nano expected to give tens of millions of Indians chance to own a vehicle
Even when it gets 50 miles/gallon, this will dramitically increase the demand for oil
AP reported that in 2005, Indian vehicles released 219 million tons of carbon dioxide, the leading greenhouse gas blamed for global warming.
By 2035, that number is projected to increase to 1,467 million tons, due largely to the expanding middle-class and the expected rise of low-cost cars, according to the Asian Development Bank.
If the car is marketed in other Asian countries as well, oil may peak in less than 7 years
Chief U.N. climate scientist Rajendra Pachauri, who shared last year's Nobel Peace Prize, said last month that he was "having nightmares" about the prospect of the low-cost car, reported The Associated Press.
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Dionys8 months, 2 weeks ago
"Scramble" has already happened. Look to Iraq and recent moves in South America by the US. Are people really so blind?
I wonder if their models took into consideration both China and India or if this will happen even sooner.
On those notes, this isn't "peak oil" in the sense that wells have been extracted to their peak point. Though some think that's happened in most major wells in the middle east.
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NelsonR8 months, 2 weeks ago
Surprise, surprise!! Hubbard said it years ago.
Oil IS finite. How can anyone argue that????
Well just maybe those that refuse to believe it, they may be right, the tooth fairy is underground producing more oil.
Question though, how come our leaders fail to prepare now??
Besides when we burn fossil fuels we inject more stored carbon into the atmosphere so what are our leaders thinking about than? Many questions, no answers from those we choose to lead us on the correct path.
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bill29368 months, 2 weeks ago
Well NelsonR, can you explain the new oil that is being found in fields that were 'played out' in the 1950s? With the oil being of different composition than the previous oil? How about the oil found in rock formations that when the analyist from Shell Oil (Hubbard) was making his predictions were the types of formation that would not have oil by the predictions of that day? Note, I worked as an oilfied engineer and logged well in played out fields and in locations that testing years before (1950s) showed no oil, yet in the 1990s had oil present.
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pawfoots8 months, 2 weeks ago
Scary stuff . . . perhaps the automotive industry will begin to see a larger shift to hybrid and electric alternatives (although the new Hummers are very good looking beasts).
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Cityslicker8 months, 2 weeks ago
I think this is a hoax , but would be nice if it was real and could be mass produced .
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_fuel_cell
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flyonthewallzz8 months, 2 weeks ago
The more I read about oil the more confused I get.
1. Oil has reached $100 a barrel.
2. A barrel is 42 gallons.
3. A barrel makes 19.5 gallons of gasoline.
If assume that the other 22.5 gallons creates marketable product?
But is washed out by refining, taxes, handling, and profit:
Why isn't gasoline more like $5 a gallon?
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walden38 months, 2 weeks ago
Our whole way of life is going to change. The suburbs will need to change. People commuting by auto 30 miles a day will end. Urban sprawl. Companies like Walmart with central distribution will have to change their business models. We'll be forced to eat local in season produce.
For anyone interested, James Kunstler is an interesting writer on social and economic issues.
"One thing the public doesn't get about the housing debacle is that it is not just the low point in a regular cycle -- it is the end of the suburban phase of US history. We won't be building anymore of it...The housing market is in a death spiral. Eventually, the median price of a house will have to fall back to the median income, and it has a very long way to go, perhaps 50 percent. This is the end, therefore, not only of the production "home-builders," but perhaps everything from Crate and Barrel to WalMart, too, eventually."
http://www.kunstler.com/Mags_Forecast2008.html
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flyonthewallzz8 months, 2 weeks ago
Wow: that was a grim picture.
James Kunstlier paints with a dark brush.
So dark I want to rebel.
I know of a carpenter that was making $100 a day during the depression:
Granted he was replacing the front doors and locks on foreclosed properties for the banks.
As the people with an income in excess of $10 million a year continues to double:
Will they be able to pull real value from their fiat capitol to pay someone to build a wall around them?
I was watching the "Antiques road show" the other day: someone had an Indian basket,
That basically served the same function as a grocery bag.
It was worth $15000
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Harbeas8 months, 2 weeks ago
I cannot understand why so many people refuse to believe that oil is a finite resource and will be depleted in the near future. If not for this generation probably the next one. Maybe its this fact that causes so many people to ignore it. Common sense says that China and India will be using much more energy than we currently are in the very near future. Yet the world is in no rush to produce new power sources for our transportation needs. This should be the highest priority we have.
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canadianrancher578 months, 2 weeks ago
Henry Fords idea of cheap transit will likely happen in countries like China and India, prosperity brings with it a desire to commute and travel. I don't feel that we will run out of oil quite as soon as predicted but it will happen. Being a farmer who needs fuel to work the land and feed animals I wonder what fuel source will be available for us. Running out of oil may have consequences that many may not have thought of. the solution to this problem is not difficult but given our love of freedom to move about it will be a bitter pill to swallow.
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daducha8 months, 2 weeks ago
Jim Rogers, the commodities guru has been telling us that oil will definitely go up, especially with the rising demand for it and no new significant oil discoveries. If we're looking for seven years to reach its peak, then even the years preceding it will not be good.
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getreal18 months, 2 weeks ago
I'm not going to worry about oil any more. Bush was told that the price can be dropped to 10 dollars by the Saudis and that means they are not as dry as some would have you think. Shell is greedy.
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